Sieht nach einem windigen Sommer mit schönene tradewinds in der Karibik aus :lol: :lol: :lol: Nur die Hurricanes werden wohl etwas gar böig ausfallen.... :shock:
Mal abwarten, ob die Prognose eintrifft.
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) February forecast update for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2005 continues
to anticipate an above-average season. Based on current and projected climate signals Atlantic basin and
US landfalling tropical cyclone activity are forecast to be about 155% of average in 2005. There is a high
(76%) likelihood that activity will be in the above-average tercile. The forecast spans the period from 1st
June to 30th November 2005 and employs data through to the end of January 2005. TSR’s two predictors
are the forecast July-September 2005 trade wind speed over the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic,
and the forecast August-September 2005 sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The
former influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region, while
the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms in the main track region. At present TSR
anticipates both predictors having a moderate enhancing effect on activity. Monthly updated forecasts will
be issued through to August 2005.
Key Predictors for 2005
The key factors behind the TSR forecast for an above-average hurricane season in 2005 are the
anticipated moderate enhancing effect of July-September forecast trade winds at 925mb height over the
Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic region (7.5oN - 17.5oN, 30oW - 100oW), and of August-
September forecast sea surface temperature for the Atlantic MDR (10oN - 20oN, 20oW - 60oW). The
current forecast anomalies (1975-2004 climatology) for these predictors are 0.54±0.74 ms-1 (down from
last month’s value of 0.62±0.79 ms-1) and 0.26±0.27oC (similar to from last month’s value of
0.27±0.28oC). The forecast skills (1985-2004) for these predictors at this lead are 36% and 33%
respectively.